2026 US Venture Capital Outlook

Jan 3, 2026 - PitchBook Research

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AI momentum and new liquidity channels set the stage for a 2026 venture rebound

The venture market heads into 2026 with a mix of optimism and realism. Liquidity challenges remain front and center, but improving market stability, easing interest rates, and a wave of AI-driven innovation are setting the stage for renewed activity across the ecosystem.

While exit values in 2025 are expected to fall short of previous cycles, signs of recovery are emerging: IPOs are inching upward, M&A activity faces less scrutiny, and venture secondaries are maturing into a mainstream liquidity channel.

AI continues to redefine venture capital. Through Q3, AI startups captured 65% of the year’s total VC deal value, with more than half of new unicorns built on AI innovation. From biotech to climate tech, the technology’s reach is accelerating deal flow, particularly in early stages. Multistage firms and corporate investors are fueling this momentum, deploying record levels of capital into AI-driven opportunities.

PitchBook’s 2026 US Venture Capital Outlook dives deep into the forces shaping the year ahead — from the rise of AI and geographic consolidation of capital to the resilience of late-stage investing and the gradual rebound of fundraising.

Download the 2026 US Venture Capital Outlook here.