This Week in Dual-Use by Sam Burrell
- Insights
- Jan 7
- 2 min read
Jan. 7, 2026 - Five Predictions for 2026 + The Latest News
Russian grey zone warfare will intensify. Putin’s calculation is that Europeans will divert resources from Ukraine if they perceive a threat to their homeland. Meanwhile Western Europe is struggling to grasp that it is living “in a space between peace and war”, as Blaise Metreweli put it in December. Let’s see if Putin can change that perception.
Space X will become the most valuable company on the planet. It already appears to be on track for the largest IPO in history. Space technology is foundational to everyday life, and SpaceX has a monopoly on access to orbit. Meanwhile Starlink is set to provide internet to hundreds of millions of users worldwide. And NVIDIA may have hit its peak valuation.
Anduril will IPO at a valuation of $50bn. Since 2025 was the year of defence tech, there is no better time than 2026 for Palmer Luckey to finally take his company public. Retail investors will be keen to get their hands on the equity.
Ukrainian defence technology will begin to dominate global defence tech. Export restrictions have hitherto stopped Ukrainians from disseminating their novel technology. But that changed in 2025. Expect to see more coming out of the country.
A leading quantum computing company will demonstrate 200+ logical qubits. So far the 48 qubit system of Microsoft & Quantinuum from 2024 remains the highest count of error-corrected logical qubits. But 2025 advancements in error correction will make it possible to beat that in 2026.
Ukraine claims underwater drone strike on Russian sub
Ukraine says a long-range SubSea Baby uncrewed underwater vehicle disabled a Russian Kilo-class submarine in heavily contested waters, a potential first in naval warfare that highlights Ukraine’s lead in combat-tested maritime autonomy.
Finnish authorities seize Russian ship suspected of sabotage
Finland’s seizure of a Russian vessel over suspected cable sabotage underscores the Baltic Sea’s shift from covert Cold War maneuvering to a grey-zone battlespace where undersea infrastructure is a primary target.
Quantum Systems acquires autonomous trucking startup Fernride
Quantum Systems’ acquisition of Fernride reflects its effort to broaden into defence logistics autonomy and keep pace with rivals expanding vertically, while remaining constrained to non-lethal technologies.
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Samuel Burrell is a Partner at Expeditions, investing in the future of security in Europe.
His weekly newsletter covers developments in dual-use and defence technologies, picking out the changes in the sector, giving them context and analysis.
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