This Week in Dual-Use by Sam Burrell

Mar 25, 2026 - Major developments in dual-use and defence tech.

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Iran attacks Diego Garcia

The UK confirmed that Iran fired two missiles at a British-American base in Diego Garcia. The missiles appeared to be two-stage intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

What is interesting is that the 4,000km range of the missiles is roughly double what most analysts thought Iran capable of. Although they failed to hit anything, the extended range now puts European capitals such as Berlin, Paris and Rome within reach.

That is a failure of intelligence. Although there have long been rumours of a 3,000-4,000km class missile, it seems they were not confirmed as operational.

Although Iran is unlikely to target European cities, I suspect this development will force a reassessment of air defence postures across Europe. For years the planning assumption for NATO was that Iran was a regional missile power. No longer.

That is good news for air defence companies, whose order books appear to be getting longer in 2026.

UK shifts to a 10-year defence procurement plan

The UK MOD set out plans to move away from annual budgeting towards a 10-year procurement model. The approach was outlined during a Defence Committee session last week.

That will be welcome news for companies supplying to MOD and in particular for early-stage businesses which will benefit from greater visibility of revenues.

This is a quiet but important reform. Defence procurement has historically struggled to accommodate venture-backed companies. Not because the technology was lacking, but often because the demand signal was inconsistent.

A 10-year horizon begins to align the MOD with how modern defence companies are built. Since they are capital intensive upfront, investors must believe in predictable future revenues to justify writing a cheque. This change helps those investment cases.

UK gets 100-qubit quantum computer

Infleqtion, an American quantum computing company, has delivered the UK’s only operational 100-physical-qubit system to the National Quantum Computing Centre (NQCC), with its Sqale platform.

When I was at NSSIF I led the fund’s investment into Infleqtion. Back then it was a private company largely focused on quantum clocks and quantum sensing. Now it is listed on the NASDAQ with a market cap of ~$2bn.

The fact that an American company has delivered this capability is both surprising and not surprising. The UK is an incredible source of talent for quantum, birthing a great number of exceptional founders and world-leading technologies. But as companies get larger the opportunities for investment and acquisition get smaller. And the US quickly becomes a sensible destination for growth.

A 100-qubit computer is small beer - IBM has recently developed one with 1,121 qubits. But for the UK it marks an inflection point - the opening of a market and the planting of a flag.

Meanwhile, the UK government just announced £1bn in funding for the development of large-scale quantum computers. It aims to retain quantum talent amid global competition.

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Samuel Burrell is a Partner at Expeditions, investing in the future of security in Europe.

His weekly newsletter covers developments in dual-use and defence technologies, picking out the changes in the sector, giving them context and analysis.