This Week in Dual-Use by Sam Burrell

April 1, 2026 - Major developments in dual-use and defence tech.

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SpaceX ready for IPO

SpaceX is apparently set to file for an IPO as soon as this week to raise $75B at a $1.75T valuation. That would make it the largest IPO in history, beating that of Saudi Aramco (~$29.4B) in 2019.

My prediction for 2026 was that SpaceX would become the world’s most valuable company. A market cap of $1.75T would place it ~6th.

Although NVIDIA’s chips are fundamental to training and running AI, space technology is foundational to everyday life. SpaceX has a monopoly on access to orbit. Meanwhile Starlink is set to provide internet to hundreds of millions of users worldwide. And NVIDIA may have hit its peak valuation.

I believe SpaceX still has room for significant growth.

Why? It is already unrivalled in launch, and Starship will increase its moat. But Starlink is the jewel in the crown. Its constellation currently has ~9,000 satellites, growing to as many as ~42,000 in the longer term. It is also increasing the bandwidth of its satellites, from 15-25 Gbps to 1 Tbps (1,000 Gbps), an uplift of 40-60x.

That will transform internet connectivity across the planet. But that’s only half the story. Starlink is uniquely strategic for its battlefield applications. As Western militaries employ more autonomous systems and software-defined hardware, there will be a commensurate increase in the data they produce. That requires high-bandwidth, low-latency networks which can operate in contested environments.

Ukraine has shown how critical Starlink is to modern military operations. Too critical, at times, for it to be governed by a capricious billionaire. Perhaps as a public company it will be a more reliable business partner.

Secret Russian interceptor drone

Ukrainian defence advisor Serhii Beskrestnov has published technical details of a little-known Russian interceptor drone known as Yolka. According to Beskrestnov, the Yolka operates only during daylight and cannot be used in rainy conditions, with an effective range of ~3km.

While American and European air defence companies regularly announce new products, we have hitherto heard little about the equivalent Russian capabilities. This is a first look at something resembling a modern interceptor.

Although crude and likely weather dependant, what matters here is the concept. The last four years have taught us that Russia’s defence innovation is weak, but its industrial output makes up for that. It is reportedly producing 2,500-3,000 Geran/Shahed drones per month, for example.

Clearly Ukrainian systems are causing a headache for Russia. It will be interesting to see what impact this has on the battlefield.

Zelensky agrees defence cooperation with UAE, Qatar

Meanwhile Ukraine is doing deals in the Persian Gulf to trade its expertise and cheap, scalable interceptors for stocks of Patriot missiles.

Iran, it turns out, pioneered cheap drones at scale. So Ukrainian kit and expertise is warmly welcomed by Gulf states which are now in the firing line.

Ukraine’s pre-war economy revolved around being the continent’s largest cereal producer, with vast tracts of flat arable land at its disposal. Four years later, it is a global leader in defence tech.

Since Zelensky relaxed the rules around Ukrainian defence exports at the beginning of 2026, the country is set to provide those products to an ever-lengthening list of potential customers. In the longer term, I suspect it will become one of the world’s pre-eminent defence exporters.

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Samuel Burrell is a Partner at Expeditions, investing in the future of security in Europe.

His weekly newsletter covers developments in dual-use and defence technologies, picking out the changes in the sector, giving them context and analysis.