This Week in Dual-Use by Sam Burrell

Feb. 18, 2026 - Major developments in dual-use and defence tech.

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I was at the Munich Security Conference last week. There was a palpable difference in tone compared to the year before. Despite the relatively conciliatory speech by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Europe is now firmly in a ‘post-Greenland’ mentality.

Admittedly we are not yet ‘post-Greenland’ as the issue may rear its head again at any moment. But that is kind of the point.

Unsure if they can trust the current US administration, heads of state across Europe are beginning to pour money into defence. Of course that is the desired outcome for the Whitehouse. But it will come at the cost of the European market for some American companies as the continent looks to ‘buy European’ where it can.

To succeed in Europe, American defence tech companies must now strike a delicate balance of branding and relationship building. They will need close relationships with European investors to access important customers, in addition to people on the ground in key geographies.

I expect that over the next two decades Europe will rebuild its defence industrial architecture. Defence spending will rise in inverse correlation with the distance of a capital from Moscow. Poland will hit 4.8% of GDP in 2026, for example. And the centre of gravity for defence tech companies will shift eastwards.

That is a conundrum for the UK, which produces some of the best companies in the sector. Its commitment to defence spending of 3.5% by 2035 is not serious. It must urgently revise this if it wants to retain talent and be part of a more sovereign European defence ecosystem.

In Other News

SpaceX blocks access to Starlink for Russian military

SpaceX restricted Starlink access for Russian troops after a Ukrainian request, amid reports Russia was fitting terminals onto Shahed drones. The episode highlights how heavily governments now rely on private space firms—and particularly on Elon Musk—for critical military infrastructure. Europe is developing its own LEO network via Eutelsat but remains far smaller and still depends on SpaceX launches. At the same time, China and Russia are advancing counter-space capabilities, underscoring intensifying space competition.

Ukraine opens weapons export centres across Europe

Ukraine plans to launch 10 weapons export hubs across Europe in 2026 under its “Build with Ukraine” co-production push, signaling ambitions to become a major defence exporter. The move—focused on the high-spending Nordic-Baltic region—could position Ukrainian firms at the core of Europe’s emerging drone defences. Companies like Uforce, known for systems such as the Magura USV, are gaining visibility. Backed by a new €90bn EU loan, Ukraine is shifting from security consumer to security provider and is expected to bring more defence tech firms to market in 2026.

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Samuel Burrell is a Partner at Expeditions, investing in the future of security in Europe.

His weekly newsletter covers developments in dual-use and defence technologies, picking out the changes in the sector, giving them context and analysis.