This Week in Dual-Use by Sam Burrell

Feb. 25, 2026 - Major developments in dual-use and defence tech.

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DoW vs Anthropic

Pete Hegseth has threatened to list Anthropic as a ‘supply chain risk’, meaning no defence contractor could use it. This comes after Anthropic tried to set conditions for what its AI could be used for. The red line for Anthropic seems to be around the use of AI for final targeting decisions without human intervention.

This reminds me of the debate around submarines in the early 1900s. As the technology was being born, there were ethical objections to its use, largely on the grounds that it was ungentlemanly to sink a ship without first offering it the chance to surrender. Then Germany adopted unrestricted submarine warfare in 1914.

The reality is that we have already moved away from human intervention. Ukraine and Russia are using AI for final targeting as it obviates the need for a communications link back to a controller, making them resistant to jamming. For the moment that is just for the final ‘terminal guidance’ stage of a mission. But I suspect that once technology allows for a fully AI-controlled mission is available, it will be used.

And Pete Hegseth has a point. No government can give suppliers a veto on policy. And it would be unwise to buy technology from a company that might turn it off. As Ukraine has discovered with Starlink.

UK announces £500m air defence package

Germany, France, Italy, Poland and Britain launched a programme to develop low-cost drones and air defence systems based on expertise gathered from Ukraine.

What’s surprising here is how quickly this technology is gathering pace, and the pan-European approach that has (thankfully) emerged. Catalysed by Russian drone incursions, defence ministries across Europe are now taking the threat seriously. This year the continent is expected to spend more on defence than at any time since the Cold War.

If this cooperation holds, it may mark the beginning of a genuinely integrated European air defence layer. That is good news for companies developing counter-drone technologies.

NATO plans Arctic surveillance

NATO is poised to step up its military presence in the Arctic region with a new surveillance mission modelled on that taking place in the Baltic Sea.

It comes as little surprise that interest in the Arctic is suddenly increasing. Although, for now, Greenland remains part of the Kingdom of Denmark, the attention of the world has turned to the area and Western nations are looking to increase their defensive posture where they have exposure there.

That is because it is likely to become a major shipping lane as the polar ice cap continues to recede. Ships leaving ports in China will save days of transit as they ferry goods to consumers in Europe.

And it’s Russia’s home turf. Moscow has spent over a decade rebuilding Arctic bases, modernising its Northern Fleet, and embedding air defence and radar coverage across its polar coastline. As ice recedes, the distance between economic opportunity and military vulnerability will narrow. NATO is right to focus some effort there.

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Samuel Burrell is a Partner at Expeditions, investing in the future of security in Europe.

His weekly newsletter covers developments in dual-use and defence technologies, picking out the changes in the sector, giving them context and analysis.