This Week in Dual-Use by Sam Burrell

Jan. 21, 2026 - Major developments in dual-use and defence tech.

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Germany buys American UAVs

Germany has ordered eight MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones from General Atomics, an American defence prime, at a cost of €1.52bn.

This initially feels off-brand for Germany, which has been a staunch champion of sovereign European capability since Munich Security Conference one year ago.

But there are many (largely strategic) capabilities which are still provided to Europe by the US. At least for the moment. I imagine European leaders across the continent are currently reviewing that list quite carefully. My sense is there will be some investment opportunities therein.

Russia fits air-to-air missiles on Shahed drones

This is a story from December but worth mentioning as it seems that the Kremlin is now deploying more of these against Ukraine. Russian forces appear to be fitting R-60 air-to-air missiles to Shahed-style drones, in theory giving them the capability to engage Ukrainian fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters.

In and of itself, this development doesn’t pose much of a threat to Ukrainian aircraft. The Russian UAVs are not fast or manoeuvrable enough to effectively use the R-60s, for now at least.

But what’s interesting here is the trajectory of Russian UAV innovation. Western defence primes and neoprimes are developing high-cost CCAs (Collaborative Combat Aircraft) to fly alongside crewed fighter jets. Meanwhile Russia is going after the AK-47 of air-to-air drone technology - cheap, reliable and operable by everyone from Mujahideen to child soldiers.

China and its quantum warfare weapons

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) says it is using quantum technology to gather high-value military intelligence from public cyberspace. It claims that more than 10 experimental quantum cyber warfare technologies are under development and being ‘tested on the front line’.

This is more propaganda than reality. Most quantum technologies aren’t ready to be deployed on the front line, although some are not far off.

But that will soon change. Quantum sensing, in particular, is a technology that will reset the paradigm for navigation and positioning. In the future we will be much less reliant on GPS and other space-based capabilities.

China is pushing hard to integrate these frontier technologies into its defence capabilities. If it can do so ahead of the West, it will have an edge.

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Samuel Burrell is a Partner at Expeditions, investing in the future of security in Europe.

His weekly newsletter covers developments in dual-use and defence technologies, picking out the changes in the sector, giving them context and analysis.